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Growth expected in veg oil consumption in India, finds Rabobank report
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Tuesday, 26 June, 2018, 08 : 00 AM [IST]
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Our Bureau, New Delhi
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Vegetable oil consumption in India will grow significantly, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of three per cent, to exceed 34 million tonne by 2030. These were the findings of Rabobank’s report, titled The Future of India's Edible Oil Industry: How Will India's Vegetable Oil Demand Shape Up by 2030?
The reasons for this include a growing population (with a CAGR of 1.1 per cent in 2017), economic growth and rising disposable income, which will increase the per capita use from 17kg in 2017 to over 24kg in 2030.
“Domestic oilseed production growth can’t keep up with rising demand,” said Rohit Kumar Dhanda, analyst, grains and oilseeds, Rabobank.
“Rising demand and stagnant domestic vegetable oil supply, which has been range-bound between 6.5 million and 8.5 million tonne in the past decade, will push India’s vegetable oil imports to over 25 million tonne by 2030, from 15.5 million tonne in 2017,” he added.
Driven by low domestic supplies, palm oil, soy oil and sunflower oil will continue to represent over 98 per cent of total vegetable oil imports.
Palm oil originated from Malaysia and Indonesia will continue to take the lion’s share at 60 per cent of the total imports in 2030, followed by South American soy oil taking a 24 per cent share and sunflower oil from the Black Sea Region taking a 14 per cent market share, respectively.
Sugar Quarterly for Q2 of 2018: The hangover
As the second quarter of the year draws to a close, Indian and Thai crops aren’t just big – they’re turning out to be enormous. As a result, Rabobank’s latest projection of the global supply demand balance for 2017-18 (between October 2017 and September 2018) stands at 10.5 million tonne, raw value, almost three million tonne above its Q1 2018 projection, and almost exclusively due to upward revisions of Thai and Indian output, as per the latest RaboResearch Sugar Quarterly.
Nearby New York raw sugar futures continue to oscillate around the USc 12/lb level.
“The Indian and Thai harvests have proven to be not just big, but enormous,” said Andy Duff, global strategist, sugar, Rabobank.
“Our latest projection of the global supply demand balance for 2017-18 stands at 10.5 million tonne, raw value,” he added.
As we enter the final quarter of 2017-18 (between October 2017 and September 2018), the prospects for the new crop year – supply/demand and trade flows – will assume an ever more important role in determining price direction. Early indications suggest a bigger crop in India, and a modest decline in Thailand.
As sugar prices oscillate around the USc 12/lb level, October 2016 (when New York futures reached almost USc 24/lb) seems a long way away.
Regional highlights
- India: The preliminary forecast for 2018-19 production is 35.5 million tonne raw value, versus 34 million tonne raw value in 2017-18
- Brazil: Dry weather in the Centre/South has brought the current consensus on the cane crop down to a range of 560 million to 570 million tonne, and it could go lower still
- The European Union (EU): The 2017-18 exports seen at over three million tonne, while the 2018-19 output pencilled in at 20 million tonne raw value
- The United States: The United States Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) latest sugar balance sheet currently projects the tightest stocks-to-use ratio on record, at just over 12 per cent, by end 2018-19
- China: A preliminary forecast from the Chinese Sugar Association, points to a five per cent increase in output, to 11.4 million tonne, raw value, in 2018-19
- Australia: New season cane crop projected at 34.5 million tonne, with sugar output forecast at 4.8 million tonne raw value
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