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Plant dairy sector: Future of sustainable diets?
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Thursday, 02 December, 2021, 13 : 00 PM [IST]
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Laltu Sinha
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The plant dairy or plant-based dairy comprises products produced from plants and herbs, which retain the properties and texture like that of milk-based products. Sometimes recognised as an environmentally friendly and healthier alternative to milk-based products, the plant dairy sector has been witnessing substantial growth in recent times.
One of the major reasons for the growth of the sector is the increase in lactose intolerance. However, growing concern about the negative environmental factors is beginning to impact the market positively. According to one estimate, approximately 30 million of the population in United States has lactose intolerance. The statistics are more daunting if the emphasis is shifted to the far east of the world (East Asia), wherein an estimated 70% - 100% lactose intolerance has been found among the people.
The rising prevalence of lactose intolerance may have been a pivotal factor, however, the growing number of veganism across the countries that have the least lactose intolerance rates happens to be the biggest factor contributing to the growth of plant dairy products in the global market.
It is estimated that over 3.2% of Germany's population is vegan. Compared to 2016 estimates, the trend has grown at a rate of four times. Further, the Good Food Institute noted that household consumption of plant-based milk across United States increased by 1% from 2018 to 2019, suggesting some potential growth for the sector in the coming years. Such factors have been collectively impacting the growth of the sector across the world.
Opportunities The immense growth in the consumption of vegan and plant-based products have led to a spike in the demand for plant dairy, which is anticipated to bolster the opportunities presented by the sector across the world.
Growing awareness of the environmental impact of conventional dairy production
One of the biggest factors contributing to the growth of the plant-dairy sector is the carbon footprint of the cattle, which has been neglected over the years. A study from Oxford University estimates dairy production emits three times the greenhouse gases (GHG). The USDA (United States Department of Agriculture), had estimated that the number of milk cows was projected to reach 9.4 million in 2020, which means that methane emissions have also increased, which is 30 times more efficient in trapping heat than CO2. As a result, the growing milk cows are instating some concerns toward the consumption of dairy products, fueling the transition toward plant dairy products across the world.
Declining cow sales and growing plant dairy consumption The momentous growth in the number of people opting for a change in the way they consume food has proportionally impacted the demand for plant dairy consumption rates. One study from the USDA released in December 2020 indicated the declining curve for cow sales across US.
The average cow milk purchase registered a decline of 12% from 0.40 gallons (per household) in 2013 to 0.35 gallons (per household) in 2017, every week. In contrast, almond and other plant dairy products showed a 36% increase from 0.027 gallons to 0.037 gallons per household, indicating an upswing for plant dairy products in the coming years.
Not all sunshine &rainbows for the plant diary sector There might be some potential opportunities pertaining to the plant dairy sector; however, there are some budding challenges that are impeding the market’s growth.
Stringent restrictions across the most adaptable region (Europe) may hinder the demand for the plant dairy sector
The growing number of restrictions across one of the most sustainability-driven regions across the world may leave a huge dent in the growth prospects of plant dairy products in the region.The Good Food Institute reports an amalgamation of 21 consumer, animal, and environmental welfare groups have requested that the European Commission and its member states reject the implied ban on plant dairy products displaying allergen and component information that are being distributed in cartons and leveraging images of their products.
Amendment 171 is anticipated to bring about a lot of fresh restrictions that may prevent plant dairy products from: ? Showcasing pivotal health and allergen component information ? Leveraging the same type of packaging that is used for normal dairy products ? Displaying product images demonstrating the texture and color of the product ? Providing awareness among the consumers about the potential impact of food on the climate, such as the carbon footprint of the plant-based products and others.
Such an initiative is anticipated to weaken the prospects for the growth of the sector in the coming years.
Low nutritional values, coupled with higher price, is impeding market growth According to one study from University Hospitals, almond milk has started becoming the most popular variant among plant-based milk products. Yet, a pivotal point emphasized by the doctors might raise some eyebrows for people considering switching to plant-based milk.Among all the milk products available, almond-based milk has the least amount of protein. Back in the day, the protein content of cow's milk was the very premise for milk consumption.
However, the most popular variant comprising the least protein content may raise questions on the consumption of such products. Along with this, the average price of 1-litre milk in India (one of the biggest producers of cow milk) is around $0.78. It is in stark contrast to the average price of almond milk in the country, which is $3.37, equivalent to 4.32 times the price of cow's milk. This makes almond milk too expensive for the majority of the population inthe country, hindering its growth.
The Way Forward Despite growing concerns and declining cow milk sales, cow milk consumption is on the rise; however, industry experts say it is a short-term trend. Cow milk consumption hasn’t declined enough for plant dairy products to replace it. In addition to this, the already well-established dairy industry is a tough cookie to beat, as evidenced by the EU restrictions against plant dairy products.
Nevertheless, Government initiatives to encourage the consumption of plant dairy products across developing nations like China and India by reducing prices for such products and making them compete with cow milk could open up some opportunities for the plant dairy sector in the future.
(The author is research director, BlueWeave Consulting. He can be contacted at laltusinha@blueweaveconsulting.com)
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