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Promising outlook for 2024-25 SS based on preliminary estimates by ISMA
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Friday, 02 August, 2024, 08 : 00 AM [IST]
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Our Bureau, New Delhi
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The Indian Sugar Mills & Bio-Energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) has announced a promising outlook for the 2024-25 sugar season (SS), with total sugarcane acreage in India estimated at approximately 56.1 lakh hectare based on satellite images obtained in late June 2024.
During a recent meeting held on July 30, 2024, representatives from sugar-producing states across the country gathered to discuss the findings. The meeting covered a comprehensive analysis of satellite imagery, field reports on expected yields, sugar recovery rates, drawal percentages, the impact of rainfall from previous and current years, water availability in reservoirs, and anticipated rainfall during the Southwest Monsoon 2024.
Highlights:
1. Uttar Pradesh: The overall condition of standing cane remains robust. Additionally, the diversion of cane towards jaggery and khandsari units is expected to be lower than last year, aligning with normal trends, thus contributing positively to sugar production.
2. Maharashtra and Karnataka: Both states have experienced a reduction in cane area by around 13% and 8%, respectively, primarily due to last year's deficient rainfall in major cane-growing districts. However, the current year's rainfall has been abundant, approximately 30% above normal, with a positive forecast for the remainder of the monsoon. This improved water availability is anticipated to significantly enhance cane productivity and sugar recovery, effectively mitigating the impact of the reduced cane area. As a result, we expect only a minimal decline of 3-5% in gross sugar production in these states.
3. Other States: Minor adjustments in cane area and production are expected, with overall stability anticipated.
Overall, the projections for the 2024-25 SS are significantly more optimistic than those forecasted a few months ago. We are confident that the upcoming sugar season will be productive and successful.
In light of these encouraging developments, ISMA is releasing a preliminary estimate of gross sugar production for the 2024-25 SS, excluding the diversion of sugar towards ethanol production.
Estimated Sugar Production for 2024-25 SS
The table below highlights the current year's sugar production and the encouraging estimates for the 2024-25 SS: S.No | States | Sugarcane Acreage | % Change over last year | 2023-24 (P) | 2024-25 (E) | Estimated sugar production | Estimated sugar diversion | Net sugar production | Estimated sugar production | | | Lakh Hectares | BEFORE DIVERSION | AFTER DIVERSION | BEFORE DIVERSION | | | 2023-24 | 2024-25 | | Lac tons | Lac tons | Lac tons | Lac tons | 1 | Uttar Pradesh | 24.15 | 23.32 | -3% | 109.76 | 20.30 | 103.76 | 113.00 | 2 | Maharashtra | 14.98 | 13.10 | -13% | 117.18 | 110.17 | 111.02 | 3 | Karnataka* | 6.75 | 6.20 | -8% | 58.24* | 52.39* | 56.51 | 4 | Tamil Nadu* | 2.48 | 2.00 | -19% | 12.31* | 12.24* | 8.84 | 5 | Gujarat | 2.22 | 2.31 | +4% | 9.20 | 9.20 | 9.98 | 6 | Others | 8.86 | 9.15 | +3% | 33.26 | 31.89 | 33.75 | 7 | Total (estimated end of season) | 59.44 | 56.08 | -6% | 339.95 | 20.30 | 319.65 | 333.10 |
*Special season 2023-24 is in progress in Karnataka and Tamil Nadu, therefore final production figures have been estimated. - As may be seen from the above table, gross sugar production (before diversion) for 2024-25 SS is estimated at around 333 lakh tonne.
- Projected sugar balance for 2024-25 SS
S.No. | Particulars | 2024-25 (E) (Fig. in Lac tons) | a | Opening Stock as on 1st Oct’2024 | 90.5 | b | Gross production during Season 2024-25 (Without diversion for ethanol) | 333 | c | Total Availability (a+b) | 423.5 | d | Internal Consumption | 290 | g | Closing Stock as on 30th Sept’2025 | 133.5 | e | Normative stock for 2 ½ months | 55 | f | Excess stock over and above normative stock (g-f) | 78.5 |
- As may be seen therefrom, the excess stock of sugar will be sufficient to support both the unhindered Ethanol Blending Program in 2024-25 season and also exports in current season leading to a balanced sugar market.
- The above estimate is made assuming normal rainfall and other optimum conditions during the remaining period.
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