Rabobank anticipates a 6.7million metric tonne global deficit through the 2019-20 season (i.e., between October 2019 and September 2020), as deep cuts in Thai and Indian production are partially offset by higher prospects for Brazil. 

Looking ahead to 2020/21, the analysts’ early expectations point to a 0.6 million metric tonne raw value surplus, as Brazil, India, and the EU see production reach levels close to five-year averages, according to the latest Sugar Quarterly. 

“Early February saw ICE #11 raw sugar futures soaring above 15c cents/lb, as the full damage to the Thai harvest became apparent. Soon after, the Coronavirus crisis was already undermining prices, but it wasn’t until Russia abandoned its oil supply pact with OPEC that the real bombshell arrived, as oil plunged to around $30/bbl, dragging sugar down below 11 cents/lb,” stated Andy Duff, global strategist, sugar.

“Regarding the effects of the coronavirus crisis on consumption, Rabobank does not foresee a major impact on 2019/20 global sugar consumption but a small erosion in countries severely hit by the virus, resulting in flat demand globally. For now, we anticipate a return to more normal demand growth in 2020/21,” he added.