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Bumper Australian crop meets soft global prices, limiting revenue upside
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Wednesday, 31 December, 2025, 16 : 00 PM [IST]
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Canberra, Australia
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Australia’s agricultural sector is poised for an exceptional winter crop harvest in 2025–26, but farmers may not fully benefit from their record output because global commodity prices remain weak, according to the latest report from the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES).
The December Agricultural Commodities Report forecasts the total value of Australian crop production at $53.4 billion, a marginal rise of just 0.2% year-on-year, even though production volumes are expected to climb about 8%. Favourable seasonal conditions in regions such as Western Australia, Queensland and northern New South Wales have supported strong yields.
ABARES executive director Dr Jared Greenville highlighted the disconnect between strong domestic output and lacklustre global markets. Farmers across major cropping zones have delivered one of the largest winter harvests on record, yet oversupply in world grain and oilseed markets has dampened prices, limiting overall revenue growth.
Despite abundant crop volumes, export values are forecast to grow only marginally—around 1% to $41.9 billion because average export prices are expected to decline by roughly 5%. According to ABARES, global stockpiles of grains remain high, meaning export volumes may stay strong but financial returns per tonne will be under pressure.
Looking ahead, ABARES cautions that summer crop prospects, such as sorghum, will heavily depend on upcoming rainfall patterns. Seasonal weather uncertainty adds another layer of risk for Australian growers already grappling with international price volatility.
For the wider food and agriculture sector, the report underlines how booming production does not automatically translate to stronger financial outcomes when global pricing dynamics weaken. Australian growers may need to explore value-added strategies and targeted export markets to maximise returns from abundant harvests.
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