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Global Cocoa prices plummet to 2.5-year low amid supply glut & waning demand
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Friday, 20 February, 2026, 16 : 00 PM [IST]
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London, UK
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The global cocoa market has entered a sharp downturn, with prices in New York and London crashing to their lowest levels in over 30 months. This dramatic reversal follows a period of historic highs in 2024, as the market shifts from a desperate supply squeeze to a significant surplus.
The price collapse is being driven by a "double whammy" of improving harvests in West Africa and a visible contraction in global chocolate consumption. Analysts at StoneX recently forecasted a massive global cocoa surplus of 287,000 metric tons for the 2025/26 season, marking a definitive end to the years of scarcity.
Favourable weather conditions across the "cocoa belt" in Ivory Coast and Ghana have boosted crop yields. In Ivory Coast, the world's largest producer, farmers report healthier and larger pods compared to last year. Meanwhile, global inventories monitored by the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) have surged to a four-month high, putting sustained downward pressure on futures contracts.
The slide is equally fueled by a slump in demand. After years of rising prices, consumers are finally balking at the high cost of chocolate. Recent data from the European Cocoa Association revealed that fourth-quarter grindings—a key indicator of demand—fell by 8.3% year-on-year, the lowest for that period in 12 years.
Major manufacturers, including Barry Callebaut, have reported significant sales volume drops as they pivot toward higher-margin products or reduce cocoa content in their recipes—a trend often referred to as "skimpflation."
The price slump has forced immediate policy changes in West Africa. On February 12, the Ghana Cocoa Board (Cocobod) slashed its farmgate price to 41,392 cedis ($3,580) per metric ton to remain competitive. This move follows reports of thousands of farmers being left unpaid as international buyers retreated from high prices.
While the drop offers long-term hope for stabilized chocolate prices, industry experts warn that "systemic supply-side issues" like aging trees and climate volatility mean the market remains fragile.
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