The World Agriculture Forum (WAF) has released a timely policy brief, ‘Global Food Security and Trade Shifts’, examining how global food systems are being reshaped by geopolitical tensions, climate volatility, slowing productivity growth, and rapidly evolving sustainability-driven trade regulations.
The report warns that the global food system has entered a phase of structural transition. After decades of trade liberalisation, recent years have seen rising tariffs, expanding non-tariff barriers, strategic stockpiling, and export restrictions. While often driven by domestic food security concerns, these measures risk amplifying volatility, increasing price spikes, and weakening trust in international food markets.
A major concern highlighted in the brief is that 673 million people faced hunger in 2024, while agricultural productivity growth has slowed significantly since 2015 due to declining investment in research, irrigation, rural infrastructure, and farmer extension systems. This raises serious concerns about the sector’s ability to sustainably meet future food demand.
The brief identifies the rise of sustainability standards as structural market conditions. Traceability, deforestation-free supply chains, and due diligence requirements are increasingly becoming mandatory conditions for market access. Unless governments invest in inclusive compliance systems, digital traceability, and farmer capacity building, millions of small-holders risk exclusion from high-value global markets.
At the heart of the report is WAF’s strategic framework of “Intelligent Interdependence” — a balanced model built on strong domestic agriculture, deeper regional integration, and resilient engagement with global trade networks. Rather than treating food security as a choice between self-sufficiency and open markets, the framework proposes strategic diversification and coordinated resilience.
The report also highlights the transformative potential of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) in creating a 1.4 billion people market and strengthening intra-African agricultural trade, logistics, and value chains.
To guide action, WAF recommends seven policy priorities: intelligent interdependence, stronger regional trade, investment in agricultural public goods, national traceability systems, regulatory diplomacy, smart targeted support, and stronger public-private coordination.
The conclusion is clear: The future of global stability and economic resilience will increasingly depend on how effectively food systems are governed across borders, markets, and institutions.