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Climate change is life-changing
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Monday, 14 December, 2009, 16 : 35 PM [IST]
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By M.S. Swaminathan
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 Recent studies have shown that for every one degree Celsius rise in temperature, wheat yield losses in India will be of the order of six million tonnes. There will be similar effects on rice and other food crops. The leaders of Group of Eight nations who met recently at L’Aquilla in Italy agreed to limit the rise in mean temperature to two degree Celsius. This will have disastrous consequences for our agricultural production and, thereby, for national food security. The consequences of global warming are multi-dimensional:
■ Unpredictable deviations in monsoon behaviour
■ Water scarcity and higher evapo-transpiration
■ Receding glaciers
■ More frequent coastal storms, tsunami, etc
■ More frequent drought and flood
■ More severe pest and disease epidemics
■ Increase in the incidence of malaria and other vector- borne diseases
Thus, the adverse impact of climate change will cover every aspect of human life. Obviously, the poor nations and the poor in all nations, who have the least coping capacity, will suffer more. There is need for both anticipatory research and action to address issues relating to mitigation and adaptation. At the same time, there is need for participatory research with rural families in order to enhance their capacity to deal with calamities like drought, flood and higher temperature.
Action is particularly important in the following areas: Contingency plans, alternative cropping strategies and compensatory production programmes. India has about 127 agro-climatic regions.
We will have to prepare computer simulation models on different weather probabilities. This will help to formulate codes of action for dealing with drought, flood and sea level rise.
A good weather code should also be prepared to maximise production in favourable seasons. The impact will have to be studied not only on crops, but also on farm animals, fisheries and forests. Seed reserves of alternative crops will have to be built up at the local level. Just as grain reserves are essential for food security, seed reserves are needed for crop security. Local-level “gene, seed, grain, fodder and water banks” will have to be promoted so that the community itself will be able to adapt to new challenges.
The impact on women will be even more serious since they are traditionally in charge of gathering fodder, fuel wood, and water and also animal healthcare and post-harvest technology. Climate risk saviour crops will have to be identified and multiplied. Rice is one such crop since it can grow under a wide range of altitudes and latitudes.
In coastal areas, bioshields consisting of mangroves, salicornia, atriplex and other halophytes will have to be erected. Sea water farming will have to be promoted through the establishment of agri-aqua farms. This is important since 97 per cent of the total global water availability is from the sea. There is also need for below sea level farming since many coastal areas will have to practise agriculture below sea level as a result of sea water inundation. The latest technologies will have to be taken to fishermen, such as mobile phones providing information on wave heights and location of fish shoals. Farm animals will have to be protected, since livestock and livelihoods are intimately related in most parts of India. Also the ownership of livestock is more egalitarian. Emergency food supply arrangements will have to be made by enriching agricultural biomass with urea and molasses. Ground water sanctuaries will have to be set up which can be utilised whenever there is water shortage.
In the area of mitigation also, local communities can contribute through better farm animal management and conservation farming. Fertiliser trees like Faidherbia albida will have to be planted on a large scale. Finally, there is need for building a cadre of climate risk managers at the local level.
Such managers should be well versed in the science and art of managing climate aberrations. Every calamity also presents an opportunity and, therefore, steps should be taken to train vast numbers of community-level climate risk managers. While global thinking and action are essential, it will only be attention to local planning and anticipatory action that can reduce human hardship and save lives and livelihoods.
M.S. Swaminathan is the chairman of the National Commission on Farmers. He is considered to be the father of India’s green revolution.
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